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NEWS

What are the main events for today?

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have the ECB rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to hike by 25 bps, bringing the policy rate to 2.50%. The focus will be mainly on forward guidance and the appetite for further tightening. If you recall, "ECB sources" signalled in August that there was less appetite at the ECB for further tightening. This gives us a baseline to work with. Looking at the market pricing, traders are expecting another rate hike in December and a total of 85 bps of tightening by the end of 2027. If the ECB sounds more hawkish, we could see some upside in the euro but the gains are unlikely to be sustained given the US CPI risk and the upcoming FOMC decision. The central bank will also release the updated macroeconomic projections where growth is expected to be revised higher and inflation lower given the recent misses in core inflation readings. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we get the US PPI and Jobless Claims data. The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 5.3% vs 4.7% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs 0.0% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 4.6% vs 4.2% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior. The expected spike is of course due to higher energy prices. Although we might see decent market moves, especially on higher than expected numbers, the US CPI remains the main event. Initial Claims are expected at 205K vs 206K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1780K vs 1779K prior. The focus is solely on inflation, so the data will be ignored unless there's a huge upside surprise that could trigger a growth scare. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Sep 10, 2026

NEWS

Germany August CPI: Energy shock keeps inflation pressures elevated

Germany August final CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% Germany August final HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% Germany August final core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The breakdownThere are no changes to the preliminary data as headline annual inflation in Germany nudges up in August. That comes as the energy shock keeps inflation pressures more elevated. The details show that energy price inflation increased by 10.5% year-on-year, marking the strongest reading in more than three years. And that is a notable jump from the 8.3% estimate in July. Besides that, core annual inflation is seen holding steady at 2.4%. So, that is at least a positive as services inflation is seen easing to 2.8% with food price inflation also remaining subuded at 0.1%. That suggests the headline acceleration was not driven by a broad-based resurgence in underlying inflation, but rather an energy story. What does the data measure?Germany’s CPI tracks changes in prices paid by households for goods and services. This is the final estimate for the month, following any revisions to the preliminary data. Why does it matter to markets?German inflation is closely watched because it feeds into the broader euro area inflation picture and can influence ECB rate expectations. Persistent inflation raises the risk that interest rates stay higher for longer. How does it fit the current economic landscape?German inflation remains elevated just as the latest energy price shock is adding fresh upside risks across the euro area, while economic growth remains relatively modest. What is the potential market impact?The final reading itself should have limited impact because it typically confirms the preliminary estimate. Current relevance to markets?Minimal. The final estimate is not going to materially shift ECB expectations, unless there is a major revision. Otherwise, all it does is it reinforces the broader inflation concern ahead of an ECB meeting where markets are already focused heavily on rising energy prices and the possibility of further tightening. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Sep 10, 2026

NEWS

US Treasury bond buyback: Why yields are still rising

Just last week, I highlighted the tectonic shift taking place in the global bond market in arguing that markets may have to get used to an era of structurally higher yields. And yesterday's announcement from the US Treasury offers another interesting test of that argument. The Treasury said that it will buy back as much as $6 billion of 10-to-20-year government bonds , tripling the previous $2 billion size. Now on the surface, that should be supportive for bonds. The theory is that Treasury buying removes older securities from the market, helping with liquidity while creating demand and pushing down yields. But instead, we're continuing to see 10-year Treasury yields hold near 4.85%, its highest since 2023. So, what gives? Why didn't the Treasury's $6 billion buyback push yields lower? It is a simple case of expectations versus reality, a tale as old as time in markets. The problem here is that markets were already expecting Treasury to step things up. Bessent had said last month that they would increase long-end liquidity-support buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. So while $6 billion is definitely larger than what was signalled, traders had been looking for something closer to $8-10 billion based on his communication and fighting words after. Plus, there wasn't much of any clearer commitment to substantially larger interventions moving forward in the latest announcement. To keep things more simply, this wasn't quite the "shock" that parts of the bond market were hoping for. And that matters because the Treasury is fighting up against much bigger macro forces in play at the moment. Inflation risks are rising again as oil prices hit $100, fiscal deficits remain substantial, and government borrowing needs remain enormous. All of this continues to lead investors to increasingly demand greater compensation for owning longer-duration debt. What does the buyback mean for Treasury yields? I wouldn't discount the potential for it to help improve liquidity and provide some technical support to longer-dated Treasuries. However, $6 billion is but a drop in a bucket when compared with the scale of the broader Treasury market and cannot fundamentally erase inflation or fiscal risk. That makes the buyback operation worth watching, but I wouldn't view it as a significant turning point for yields by itself. If anything else, the reaction since yesterday reinforces the bigger and more prominent message from the bond market. And that is investors will still want higher yields i.e. to be paid more to hold long-term government debt in this market and economic landscape. Until that changes, Treasury buybacks may only help to slow the pressure but they are unlikely to reverse the broader tectonic shift. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Sep 10, 2026

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